Trump controls the Iowa race
Former President Donald Trump said he is a champion of farmers in a campaign visit to Council Bluffs on July 7, 2023. (Photo by Jared Strong/Iowa Capital Dispatch)
Heading into the Labor Day turn, Donald Trump holds several lengths of a lead as we clear the Iowa State Fair, round the turn past the first big Iowa Poll, and snort through the much-hyped TV debate that aired too late for people who have cows to milk. That’s the state of the horserace rumbling toward January.
Trump ignored Gov. Kim Reynolds and her “Fairside Chats” where she interviewed most of the other candidates not far from the Butter Cow. The crowds glommed around the former president pressing the flesh at the fair without her.
The Iowa Poll leading into the debate showed Trump with a 23-point lead over his nearest competitor, Ron DeSantis, among likely caucus-goers. The others were in single digits.
Trump did not show up for the Milwaukee debate. With a lead like that, why suffer the abuse? Polling showed that he took a slight strawberry-blonde haircut immediately following the debate. DeSantis saw his post-debate approval nudge up. Vivek Ramaswamy got all Trumpy, and took lots of incoming flak as his visibility rose along with his disapproval numbers, according to number-crunching FiveThirtyEight.
Climate change is a hoax, Ramaswamy said, as Milwaukee set a record temp of 101 degrees.
Former Vice President Mike Pence thumped the Bible over abortion.
Six of the eight candidates on stage raised their hands when the TV moderators asked if they would support Trump as the nominee even if he were convicted of crimes. Chris Christie got booed for dumping on Trump. Asa Hutchinson has become irrelevant already.
The candidate with the surest shot to beat President Joe Biden was not on stage: Will Hurd, a former CIA officer who served in Congress from a perfectly purple district around San Antonio and the border. He refused to take any blood oath for the indicted leader of the field, and didn’t have the polling numbers to earn a slot. He is young, not White, hawkish, is alarmed by climate change but knows we can turn this around, and has a broad appeal with independent voters.
Trump’s first act following the debate, in a triumphal return to X (fka Twitter), was to post his Fulton County Jail scowling mug shot on Thursday.
A strong majority of Republicans in Iowa and elsewhere believe Trump is the victim of political persecution following the Jan. 6 insurrection. We have all heard that phone call Trump made to the Georgia secretary of state demanding that he come up with about 11,000 votes so Trump could win. Nikki Haley said she would support him. So did Pence! They were hunting to hang the veep!
Little wonder Trump squishes the spineless.
Trump tells Iowa that he is being persecuted for us, like the Messiah. They could do this to you, throw you in jail for presenting false electors and speaking your mind. People stop and think, and say “Damn right. They are out after me. I can’t catch a break.”
At the same time, he called for a moat of tariffs to protect jobs from Ohio to Iowa from the Chinese. For those in the decaying river towns, he sounds like someone who actually gets their frustration.
The jail ID is a badge of honor.
Trump is thumbing his nose at the Iowa GOP establishment, like he did the first time he won, while the lesser rip each other up. He delights in it. Before they can take a breath, he steals the oxygen by taking over the airwaves as we watch his motorcade wheel into the jail sally port.
Will Hurd is stuck in a hotel room somewhere watching on TV.
A plurality is all it takes. There might be one ticket out of Iowa this time, from the way things are taking shape. DeSantis is said to have the best ground game in Iowa, but he has many furlongs to make up while Trump’s base holds rock-solid at 40%. It’s all he needs.
Republicans also told the Iowa Poll that they would rather make a point than win. They are getting what they want. Their man could be in jail come November 2024 for attempting to overthrow the government, and that very prospect energizes people who think the whole race is rigged anyhow.
Art Cullen is the editor of the Storm Lake Times Pilot in Northwest Iowa, where this column appeared. For more columns and editorials, please consider a subscription to the Times Pilot. Or, if you wish, you can make a tax-deductible gift to the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation to support independent community journalism in rural Iowa. Thanks.
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The Republican party primary candidates are a "show " that may be better distributed by a spreader on the back pasture. It should be obvious that Trump's tariff policies were not an advantage the first time they were tried. Just track the commodity prices under them and not. This craziness is why Iowa is no longer a place for first in the nation. We now may be a bell weather for the extreme right or left. Not a good thing. Pragmatist in both parties and independents have little or no voice among the din of 24/7 media and propaganda. Something we didn't have when this caucus thing started. So if we can't hear the truth how can we make relivent opinions.
I was awaiting our 45th president adding John Gotti defense attorney Bruce Cutler, who obtained three acquittals for Teflon Don I, to his legal team. Well, he came close. Cutler law partner Tim Parlatore represented 45 in the Mar-A-Lago documents case before stepping aside in May. One of Mr. Trump's other attorneys in the Stormy Daniels hush money case, Susan Necheles, represented Genovese underboss Venero "Benny Eggs" Mangano who served 13 years for extortion and conspiracy before his death in 2017. And the 45th president's lawyer in the Jan. 6 case, John Lauro, represented former NBA basketball referee Tim Donaghy, who took payoffs from bookies, bet on games he officiated and was sentenced to 15 months in prison.
Too bad NYC columnist Jimmy Breslin is no longer with us to write about Teflon Don II.